Method
How the numbers are made. Facts are recorded with a source; everything else is calculated by the rules below; nothing on the public site is an interpretation.
Unit of analysis
The campus: one announced site, named as its operator names it. The question asked of every campus is what stands between it and its first power. For a hybrid campus (on-site generation first, grid later) the target is the first energization. There is no MW floor; a campus enters when it is announced and public facts about it exist.
Two datasets
Campus dataset. 146 campuses: 93 from Epoch AI's "AI data centers" (CC BY 4.0: campus list, satellite-based build-out notes and IT-power estimates) and 53 researched from public reporting. Hand-entered tables add power path, dated steps, equipment, utility partners and announced targets, each row with a source link, a tier and a confidence level. Every map, chart, table and count on the site except the next item is a projection of this dataset.
Equipment lead-time dataset. Reported lead times for new orders of gas turbines, transformers, HV breakers and backup generation, from maker filings and reporting. It feeds the "Where power is getting tight" section and the constraint pages. The bridge between the two is the observed row in that section: how long the same steps took at tracked campuses that reached first power.
Source tiers and confidence
● primary: filings, permits, regulator dockets, court records, the company's own announcements. ◐ secondary: reporting that quotes a primary party by name. ○ tertiary: aggregators and trackers whose method is not public. Confidence (high / medium / low) is set per row. A placeholder date (entered so a campus can be compared when a plan was announced but no completion reported) is marked low and says "placeholder" in its note. Territory-inferred utilities say "verify".
Recorded, calculated, interpreted
Recorded: a fact with a source (first-power target, equipment order, substation energization, announced MW, construction start, utility agreement). Calculated: derived mechanically from recorded facts by a rule stated here (deadlines, slip, implied first power, roll-ups, readiness counts, change materiality). Interpreted: human judgement. The public site shows only the first two; interpretation, if it ever appears, will be in a separately labelled note.
Gate to first power
Each step has a lead time: how many months before first power it must be finished. Deadline = target first power − lead. A required step whose recorded date is later than its deadline plus tolerance is red. A required step with no public date is grey, "no public date"; it is an absence of record, not a finding. A step on record inside its deadline is green. Steps that the campus's power path does not require are context and never colour. The target is the announced first-power date where one exists, else the current estimate.
| Step | Lead (months before first power) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Site secured | 15 | Land under control and campus announced. Rarely binding; shown for context. |
| Permits in hand | 0 | Final air and siting permits. Operators often energize on standard or temporary authorisations and receive the major permit later; flagged only when the permit lands more than 6 months after first power or is missing for an on-site plant. |
| Grid supply agreed | 9 | Interconnection or large-load agreement approved. Observed median 7 months before first power; the physical works (substation, lines) run in parallel with construction. |
| Substation and lines energized | 2 | Utility delivery point live; final tests before the load is taken. |
| New generation online | 1 | Utility plant or on-site plant generating; needed just before energization when the grid cannot carry the load alone. |
| Major equipment on site | 6 | Turbines, transformers, switchgear delivered; installation and commissioning take the remaining months. |
| Construction started | 24 | Groundbreaking of the building that gives first power. Observed 4-26 months for recent AI campuses; Meta's redesigned campuses took 35-58. |
| Building ready for IT | 0 | First building ready for IT. 'Complete' or 'opened' is usually reported after first power; flagged only beyond 3 months. |
| Full build-out complete | -12 | All announced buildings operational. Comes after first power by design; context only. |
| Water supply secured | 12 | Water rights, municipal agreement or desalination contract in hand. Context only; one of the feasibility items. |
| Financing closed | 12 | Project financing, anchor lease or committed capital announced. Context only; not applicable when the owner is a hyperscaler building on its balance sheet. |
Lead times were calibrated on the energized campuses on record (grid agreement median 9 months before first power, construction start 24, equipment 6, generation 1, substation 2; permits and building-ready 0 with tolerances). The "Others did it" column on each campus page shows the observed median and n for the same step.
Slip and implied first power
Slip = first-power date now expected − first-power date first announced, in months; shown only where an announced date is on record, always "vs first announced target". Implied first power (campuses not yet energized) = the latest of (recorded date + lead) over the required steps, never earlier than the target. A plan date counts the same as an actual one, so it is a floor set by the record, not a forecast.
Operator class and colours
Operator = the owner when it is a hyperscaler, else the first hyperscaler named among the users (the campus is built for them), else the owner. Hyperscalers and any operator with 1 GW or more planned across its campuses get a colour; the rest are "Others". The map's default colour is the operator; status (operational, expanding, not yet energized), power path and slip are one click away. Red on the site is reserved for a recorded date past a deadline.
Recorded readiness
Seven observable milestones per campus: land, permits, grid supply, generation, water, financing, construction. A milestone is "secured" only when an actual, dated, sourced row exists for it; "planned" when only a plan date exists; "no public record" otherwise; "not applicable" when the power path does not need it (grid-only sites need no on-site generation) or the owner is a hyperscaler building on its balance sheet (financing). The result is stated as a count, "5 of 7 applicable milestones have a dated public record", never as a score or a ranking.
Changes, weeks and materiality
Every build saves a snapshot; the last build of an ISO week is that week's snapshot and gets a data version such as 2026-W41. "What changed" compares consecutive weekly snapshots. Each step row carries a reason: event (something happened), correction (the record was fixed) or backfill (an older fact was added). Only events count as market changes. A change is material when the first-power target moved three months or more, planned IT power changed by 10% or 100 MW (whichever is smaller), status changed, a required step gained a date, or an equipment row with a named make was added. The block is titled "this week" only when the newest snapshot is at most ten days old.
Coverage limits
US campuses are tracked building by building through Epoch AI's satellite notes; campuses elsewhere enter as announced phases, which run large and slip, and whose grid and substation dates are rarely public. A column of "no public date" outside the US describes documentation, not delay. Chart lines end at the last year with announced or estimated data for their group. Counts in commercial sections show their denominator, and a category is counted only once at least five campuses have a recorded supplier in it.
Attribution and licence
Epoch AI, "AI data centers", CC BY 4.0, for the campuses it covers; GeoNames cities500, CC BY 4.0; Natural Earth, public domain. The attribution travels with every chart frame. The site's own tables and charts are CC BY 4.0: credit "AI Loadmap (ailoadmap.com)" with a link (see Data & sources). Corrections are welcome: see About.