Gas turbines
Reported lead time for new orders, from public filings and reporting. This is the equipment dataset, kept separate from the campus dataset; the campus pages show what tracked campuses actually took.
Reported lead time
70 mo · Severe · trend ▲ longer than the previous observation · ● primary source · data 2026Q2
116 GW waiting (GE Vernova combined; guides >=125 GW by YE2026) ÷ 20 GW/yr (GE Vernova annualized output target reached in Q3 2026)
Confidence: high.
By year (a year shows a value only when it was observed in that year or the one before)
| Year | Months | Data date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70 mo | 2026Q2 | ● primary source |
How the number is made — orders waiting ÷ yearly output
| GE Vernova | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Firm equipment backlog | 44 GW | 53 GW |
| Slot reservations | 56 GW | 63 GW |
| Backlog + reservations | 100 GW | 116 GW |
| Shipped in the quarter | — | 3 GW |
| Annual output | — | 20 GW/yr reached Q3 2026 · 24 (2028) · 30 (2030, announced) |
The line grew by 16 GW in one quarter while 3 GW shipped. At 20 GW a year the 116 GW waiting takes about 5.8 years to clear, the ~70 months shown. Management guides to at least 125 GW by the end of 2026 (GE Vernova 8-K, primary). This is an upper estimate of "if I order today, when do I get it", because it assumes every waiting order is ahead of yours.
Makers
| Maker | Backlog | Capacity | Expansion | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova | 53 GW firm + 63 GW reserved (2026 Q2) | 20 GW/yr (2026 Q3) | 24 GW/yr 2028; 30 GW/yr 2030 announced, not committed | ● 8-K |
| Siemens Energy | 69 GW firm (Apr–Jun 2026); 15 GW ordered, 6 GW shipped in the quarter; book-to-bill 2.65 | 35 large units/yr; 80 medium units/yr | +15 large units planned 2027 | ◐ earnings coverage; ● release |
| Mitsubishi Power | Not captured yet; the supply total is incomplete without it. | — | ||
Siemens units are not converted to GW here: the average output per unit is an assumption that has not been sourced yet.
Sources
- ● GE Vernova 8-K · primary, confidence high · latest 2030
backlog_gw_gev_firm 2026Q2; reservation_gw_gev 2026Q2; backlog_plus_reservation_gw_gev 2026Q1; backlog_plus_reservation_gw_gev 2026Q2; shipped_gw_gev 2026Q2; production_capacity_gw_gev 2026Q3; production_capacity_gw_gev 2028; production_capacity_gw_gev 2030 - ○ Arkolith (citing CompressorTech2) · tertiary, confidence medium · latest 2026Q2
sold_out_horizon_gev 2026Q2 - ◐ Utility Dive via Energy News Beat · secondary, confidence high · latest 2026Q2
backlog_gw_siemens_firm 2026Q2; orders_gw_siemens 2026Q2; shipped_gw_siemens 2026Q2; production_capacity_units_siemens_large 2026 - ◐ Siemens Energy earnings coverage · secondary, confidence high · latest FY2026
production_capacity_units_siemens_medium FY2026 - ● Siemens Energy earnings release · primary, confidence high · latest 2026Q2
book_to_bill_siemens_gas_services 2026Q2
Source tiers: ● primary (filings, operator documents) · ◐ secondary (reporting that quotes a primary party) · ○ tertiary (aggregators, market reports of unknown method).